In recent years, future contract markets AND options contract in financial AND investment world have become much more important AND these markets reached to a level of financial innovation that it is necessary for every expert in financial affairs have to be aware that how these markets work.This paper, investigates the effective factors on Future Contracts Price Fluctuation in IRAN MerchANDise Exchange by using GLS & GARCH APPROACHES. In this paper we used EsfAND of 1390 future contract as symbol of Future Contracts in IRAN MerchANDise Exchange AND between the effective factors on Future Contract Price Fluctuation we chose the world price of gold, total index of exchange, the equality rate of dollar AND Rial. The statistic society of investigation is IRAN MerchANDise Exchange that future contract of EsfAND 1390 with 178 working days have chosen.Our approach is econometric AND using Generalized Auto Regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) AND Generalized Least Squares (GLS).As we saw in this paper there is a positive relation between the equality rate of dollar AND Rial AND Future Contract Price Fluctuation that means with increasing of equality rate of dollar AND Rial the Future Contract Price will increase AND also it is true about the world price of gold but as we saw it didn’t approve about total index of exchange.

Oil AND gas are substitute commodities to meet energy needs AND their markets are thus interrelated with increasingly fierce competition between them. Recent spikes AND shocks in the energy markets necessitate the in-depth study of various aspects of the relationship between oil AND gas markets as two main sources of energy. We thus use weekly price data to investigate long AND short-run oil AND gas markets AND the relationship between their respective volatilities AND spillover of volatility from one market to the other. We use the ARDL-GARCH method to simultaneously study the behavior of long AND short run markets taking into account their volatility. The results confirm the existence of a long term relationship between the two markets. Oil prices act as a weak exogenous variable in determining gas prices in the long run. While in the short term it is gas prices that influence oil prices. In addition, we see that volatility of gas prices has a spillover effect on volatility of oil prices while the relationship does not hold the other way around.

Sharp increase in oil price AND the volatility in recent decades have attracted most researchers towards the field of energy. It seems not only the direct oil price, but also the uncertainty caused by the oil price volatility affect the raw oil supp ly. In this research the effect of oil price volatility on oil supply has been estimated using monthly time series data from January 1980 to September 2007 for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Libya AND Nigeria, AND the monthly data from March 1981 to September 2007 for UK. Fist, applying GARCH the uncertainty from real oil price volatility is estimated, AND then the long run coefficients are obtained using ARDL. The results indicate that the effect has been positive AND significant in Saudi Arabia AND Libya, but negative AND significant in UK, while it was insignificant in Iran AND Nigeria. This shows that the effect of oil price uncertainty on the oil supply depends on the shape of the utility function.

Objective: The main purpose of this paper was to present a more efficient method for measuring the insurance market risk of insurance companies in the model of solvency protocol No. 69 of the Supreme Council of Insurance. The market risk factors of the solvency model address two main issues: firstly, the various methods of calculating these factors AND their efficiency have not been properly evaluated AND secondly, these factors are for normal conditions AND in calculating them, the economic shocks effects are not considered to extract volatility under stress conditions. Methodology: We propose a new method that combines two models of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) AND Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH). Using the statistical data of Tehran Stock Exchange Index (TEPIX), Economic Growth, Inflation Rate AND Exchange Rate in the period of 1999 to 2017 AND using the Value at Risk measure (VaR), we modeled the investment market risk in stocks. Three simple variance-covariance methods, AR-GARCH AND ARDL-EGARCH models were used. Finally, using the Kupiec back testing, the ARDL-EGARCH model was selected as the best model Findings: Using the method presented in this paper, the risk factor estimation of the market risk of solvency model is more efficient than the other methods Conclusions: Using the introduced model, the risk factor of investing in the stock market of financial corporations is 39% under normal economic conditions AND 86. 4% in crisis AND stress conditions.

Consumption as the most stable variable of GDP, plays an important role in the economy. According to consumption theories, the form of the consumption function in the short AND long run changes the coefficients of macro-variables multiplier, This has an effect on how macro policies affect economic variables. In this regard, in the present study, an attempt has been made to empirically test the hypothesis of the ratch effect of Duesenberry consumption using annual time series data of the Iranian economy during the period 1976-2020. For this purpose, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), BMA_ADL AND deep learning method LSTM (Long short term memory) has been used. results indicate that this hypothesis is not consistent for Iran. In other words, empirical evidence shows that, contrary to Dusenberry's theory, the slope of the consumption function in the short term is higher than the slope of the long-run function. As a result, the Multiplier coefficient of demAND management policies in the short run is more than the long run. This pattern of consumption behavior can be called the precautionary behavior of households, which originates from Iran's economic conditions.

According to the process of internationalization of financial markets, growing development of trading AND information technology advances accelerated more than before. Nowadays most of the capital will undoubtedly interchange through stock markets. National economies are strongly affected by the performance of stock exchanges. In addition stock has either been as an available investment tool for huge investors or the public. Therefore in this study besides investigating the effect of macroeconomic variables in total value of transacted stocks in selected countries, we estimate the effect of total value of transacted stocks in the entire world in total value of transacted stocks in Iran through variables of oil income, the per capita income, inflation, industrial Production, exchange rate AND interest rate. The estimation period is between the years 1991-2010. The model has been estimated by the Vensim Dynamic System, combined data (Pool) AND GARCH time series methods AND the effect of international stock markets in Iran stock market has been studied. The results indicate that international Stock Exchange fluctuations have a meaningful effect in Iran’s bourse. Other result of this paper is that the oil income has no effect AND misalignment has a negative effect in total value of transacted stocks. If the per capita income has 5 percentage of growth, causes 15 percentage of fluctuation in stock market.

Any change in the petroleum market indicators such as price or income, almost all petroleum- exporting countries affected. Since the major part of the government's budget obtain from petroleum exports, instability survey of petroleum revenue on various sectors of the Iran's economy such as agriculture is very important. Therefore in this study, the instability impact of petroleum revenues on the value- added of Iran's agricultural Sector was evaluated using the ARDL model in the period of 1971-2007. The results of this study showed that the impact of capital stock AND labor on value-added of agricultural sector is positive AND significant in short-term AND long-term, while the instability variable of petroleum revenues have negative effect on the value- added of agricultural sector in short- term AND do not influence it in long-term. The estimated error correction coefficient has the expected sign AND it showed that changes in value-added of agricultural sector %45 corrected in each period. Also, the results of stability test showed that estimated parameters are stable. Finally, strengthening agricultural export AND applying measures AND policies can reduce the effect intensity of petroleum revenues.

The present paper addresses the long-run AND causality relationship between financialization AND income inequality in the macroeconomic level of Iran during the period of 2002-2018. By collecting required data, the relationship AND causality between three financialization indicators (financial value added as total economy value added, financial employment as total economy employment, AND market capitalization as share of GDP) along with unemployment rate, inflation rate AND trade openness AND Gini coefficient, as an indicator of income inequality, has been investigated. Using ARDL bounds testing approach, cointegration analysis was performed AND then causality between financialization indices AND income inequality is tested using Toda-Yamamoto approach. Findings of the research show that there exists a long-run relationship between considered variables when income inequality variable is utilized as dependent variable. Also, there is a unidirectional causality from financialization indicators to income inequality. This result verifies the results obtained by other researches in this field. However, because of limitation of this study to access data, the effect of financialization indices to income inequality is not estimated. It is suggested to researchers do the same study by focus on financialization phenomenon in micro level AND longer period of time.